2021 — year of Layer 1 protocol, NFTs, and metaverse coin
Layer 1 protocol- LUNA,SOL,AVAX,BSC,FTM,ONE… ALGO,ADA,DOT,SCRT (1st half of the year)
NFTs also make alot of progress (especially on SOL).
Metaverse coin — AXS, SAND, MANA, GALA
If youre lucky enough to catch all the above, on average you will get 50x-100x yearly performance. It was the year of narrative trading. This year can be considered up only, so narrative trader were the most lucky. What is narrative trader? Answer → https://cobie.substack.com/p/trading-the-metagame
UPSETS of 2021 ( upset here means not doing 10x lol, in general if you hold 1 year u still in profit)
Defi. Defi were doin great in 1st half of the year, but perform very bad in 2nd half. If you chart every protocol against their native coin.. eg SUSHI/ETH, UNI/ETH, RAY/SOL u will see they performbadly, u might as well hold the protocol coin (UNLESS you were farming the wholetime). This is obvious in SOL ecosystem, if you were to hold SRM,RAY,ORCA, or whateva SOL protocol you will be heavily underperform by SOL (coz it did 100x this year). So u might ask y? imo bcoz of its bad tokenomics, most of SOL project have really high FDV and VCs control most of the supply, long term it dont look great. AVAX on the otherhand have a more fair distribution of their protocol token eg trader joe (JOE) so in general AVAX’s defi doing quite good. What to learn? FDV is an important metric, mb not obvious in short term but defo for long term..
XRP,LTC,BCH,XLM, IOTA (aka dinosour coins) under perform
ADA if not becoz of its 1st quarter performance, it will belong to the group. Back in February i wrote a long post on why im abandoning dino coin like LTC (Im LTC investor since 3usd) coz i think the EV is not good. The BNB pump from 30–500USD in 1st quarter show that protocol with smart contract will perform better. LTC dont have any smart contract, so is a no brainer.. ADA XRP smart contract is oso questionable imo.
Exchange token.( FTT, HT, CRO)
fair share of pump n dump, YOY performance in general 10X-20X.
My biggest win of 2021
Back in February I wrote a post on channelling my effort into SOL ecosystem. That was a very2 good decision. It will be the same if you were to decide to invest and explore into LUNA,DOT,MATIC,AVAX,ONE. The key here is to learn and explore the ecosystem! So I believe if you did the samething on other L1 protocol, you will get the same result.
Not only i 50X on protocol coin (in my case SOL), exploring into the ecosystem allow me to get into IDO, NFTs and Airdrops,
Raydium - I was not lucky enough to get into Raydium ICO , but on average I bought RAY at 2–3 USD, and it did go to 16USD and back down to 6USD . previously i explain how tokens like RAY have bad tokenomics so Ididn’t get direct benefit from its price appreciation BUT holding and staking the coin allow me to join IDOs held on Raydium throughout the year. On average if you were to stake 500 Ray (avg price 5 USD= 2500USD) you could enter those IDOs and profit up to 20k USD, that is if you have only 1 account..shud have atleast 4 LOL
Tbh i dont fully capitalize the IDO game in SOL coz i miss alot of IDO on other platform like solstarter,starlaunch, solanium etc.. not only that, focusing on SOL meant i miss IDOs on BSC,DOT,AVAX and on CEX to like Huobi primelist etc .. imo BSC and DOT have more launchpads and i could’ve have make more money IF i play them well, anyway “IF” is the keyword here, IDOs depend on luck too, so eventhough I see lot of successful project on BSC there might be a possibility i wudnt be lucky enough to get into any of it coz I think BSC is a very crowded place, whereas DOT require long term horizon which is capital intensive (every protocol have pro n cons). Infact, as a self proclaim SOL expert I even missed the biggest IDO on SOL which is ATLAS (if you get IDO allocation of 69USD, you will end up with 10k USD at listing day) u can’t win everytime …
Ok, I have mix feeling about NFT ( If u follow me long enough you know I’m a BTC centric guy) plus I hate punks/ BAYC community on twitter lmao (who doesn’t! Always show off..or mb i was js jelous). Anyway, I think I once share my investment thesis this year where I believe you will make money more for just being dumb. Dont think too much! js follow narrative!. This is wat happened to DOGE and SHIB. I never get chance to onboard the dogs hype, so I say to myself “I js gonna try my luck with NFTs and go all out!”
I was lucky in regard I’m considered as early investor in SOL, so my connection in SOL community quite good and most important I got alot of cheap SOL, coz i bought them early. Being “SOL rich” put me in a big advantage here imo, coz there’s nowhere in hell i would mint some silly NFTs for 100 bucks (1 SOL) recklessly. Reckless here is relative. Compared to other Solana OG i considered as conservative. Instead of buying everything. I focus on good project, and throw alot of money on specific project.
TLDR(coz NFTs story cud be another article by itself) — NFTs is a probability game. I joined approx 20 projects, 15 project turn bad but the 5 succesful projects make up for all the lost SOL. Successful here meant I dont make a lost, most project i just join during mint and sell everyting in 24 hours. to put in perspective how “all out” i was- At the peak of NFT season I hired up to 10 people to mint for me, so thats the scale of my “NFT hunting” game. The funny thing about my NFT hunting is, most of the time i know the project is shit but i still participate coz I know there’s other fool out there, so i js need to be the 1st, even until now i believe 99% of the projects are worthless. And i love the feeling when im done selling and the price js plummet lmao..
I always talk shit about NFTs coz most of them are, but doesn’t mean i should not take advantage. BUT I could be wrong! So I do keep some NFTs which i think might be succesfull, Aurory and Portal these 2 is my only longterm holding. The funny part about this whole NFT journey is ;NFTs end up to be my most profitable trades, TA and scalping was a waste of time lol (atleast thats what i tot for a while)..Word of advise if you think you interested to play with NFTs you must know it can be extremely volatile, Its normal for me to watch my NFTs collection go from 1000s worth of SOL to <500SOL the next day, not to mention the change of USD valuation due to SOL fluctuation. Hate to say this, but I think NFTs is rich guys game, and its very niche. Sure you can buy NFT for 0.1 BNB, but that kind of NFT is not the same as 1 ETH valuation NFT, totally different league. Thats y i think NFT game is not sustainable longterm, So when i saw project use slogan “NFT for everyone” I just lol. Coz like seriously it js rich people jacking off to each other. I’m happy to be proven wrong though, I’m hoping metaverse game can give value to NFTs. Anyway js to motivate ( or encourage gambling lol) i will tell you; if you lucky enough, you can make a killing when minting new NFT projects, the best mint for me is aurory i turn 1 SOL into +500SOL (paper valuation) and i have frens who turn 1 SOL mint to thousands SOL (instant millionaire (RM wise)).. so yeah NFTs are crazy..
I think airdrop should also get honourable mention coz it give gave me sizeable return with 0 risk. Also depend on luck but if you active in defi, you will know trying out new dapps and protocol will give you free airdrops. And this happen across all L1 and ETH ecosystem, this trend started by UNISWAP and later followed by new emerging L1s. U js need to be active, checkout twitter, go into discord. To put into perspective as a non airdrop hunter (if i was, you’d see lot of link in FB group!) Iestimated i made around 20k USD js on air drop alone (IF you sold the TOP). If i could do it anyone could do it
My biggest Lost of 2021
well2 tbh not much. fail scalps are normal.but js for the record My ROOK thesis was a failure (bought at 450 and exit 150). COPE underperform really bad, start listing at FTX was1.6USD, go up to 8 USD and now only worth 80cents, but Igot them for free, so not much too complaint ( still feel bad though coz i shilled them and it didnt perform, my followers defo loose some money kek)
So thats all for now.. Next article 2022 thesis and trading plan..